BASICS OF STATISTICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
Author: Georgi Ranchov
There are two main tendencies developing in epidemiology, now: the mathematical theory of epidemics – mathematical modelling of abstract and real epidemiological situations, relations and associations, and statistical epidemiology – study of mass epidemiology occurrence and process with the help of statistical methods.
The beginnings of formal analysis in epidemiology dates in the XVII c., however, advance is a process which marks an upheaval not until late XVIII c. First serious statistical analysis of distribution of infectious diseases make D. Bernoulli as early as 1760. High scientific value have works in the field by W. Farr /1840/, G. Evans /1875/, J. Brownlee /1906-1918/. They use general parameters, formula and mathematical curves to describe epidemiologic distribution of varia infectious disease in the population.
Up to now statistical epidemiology partakes main position in the structure of epidemiologic analysis. It is an important and specialized branch to study statistical laws in the distribution of infectious disease, even more after the computer programs and systems were imported on a large scale in science and technology.
The monograph accentuates on the quantitative side of occurrence in epidemiology, namely: princeps, essence and specifics of main methods for statistical study in epidemiology; quantitative characteristics of epidemiology process; causal /factor/ analysis of epidemiology relations; modeling of trends, cyclical and seasonal variations; prognosis and effective evaluation of interventions, i.e. immunization, vaccination etc.
Also, the application of methods in statistical epidemiology demands good knowledge from the qualitative side of the investigated event, namely the theory of epidemiology. In this sense the combination of epidemiological and statistical parlance should beware from ungrounded statistical avantgardism and epidemiological nihilism. It’s the multiplicative approach to epidemiology occurrence and event that should provide correct theoretical, methodical and practical design to problems, true analysis of data, objective interpretation of results and scientific argumentation of conclusions.
Chapter 1: Main points and periods of research in statistical epidemiology
Chapter 2: Types of research in statistical epidemiology
Chapter 3: Representative epidemiological research
Chapter 4: Main parameters /intensive and extensive/ of infectious diseases
Chapter 5: Variation analysis
Chapter 6: Alternation analysis
Chapter 7: Correlation analysis
Chapter 8: Regression analysis
Chapter 9: Factor analysis I - main component analysis
Chapter 10: Factor analysis II - rotation analysis
Chapter 11: Trend analysis
Chapter 12: Mathematical modeling analysis
Chapter 13: Time series analysis
Chapter 14: Seasonal variation analysis
Chapter 15: Stochastic process analysis
Chapter 16: Operation analysis
Chapter 17: Etiognosis of epidemiological process
Chapter 18: Prognosis of epidemiological process
Chapter 19: Effectiveness of vaccination
Chapter 20: Efficacy of vaccination